Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Your Golf Pool Value

You've only got X amount of money to work with, and picking Tiger just simply won't work for two reasons. No one knows just for sure when he's coming back, and assuming he's pro-rated, which he most likely is, will he play enough events to give you a big ROI?

With this and many other choices in mind, here are some players that may be a bargain this season, and some I believe you should avoid.

My Top Five:

Hunter Mahan $2,208,855 - Although he didn't win last season, he came close and posted three top 10's in his last five starts in 2008. I think the Ryder Cup gave him an added boost of confidence and he's close to breaking out. I wouldn't be surprised if he won a couple of times in 2009.

Davis Love III $1,695,237 - How can you not pick him. He finished 2008 with a T6, T3 and the victory in the season's final event. He looked solid at the Mercedes tying for second and seems to have that old confidence back along with the game to go with it. I can't see how you won't get a return with him on your team.

Anthony Kim $4,656,265 - Sure his price tag is hefty, but this kid is just getting better. A major may not be out of the question this season and as long as this shoulder thing doesn't turn into something big, he's simply too hot to not pick in my opinion.

Aaron Oberholser $850,000 - I wouldn't call him a sleeper as he's proven he can play with the best in the past, but coming off an injury riddled 2008 has many questioning how well he'll play in 2009. After not playing for basically 4 months he posted a T4 in his second event back at the Frys.com open. With his cost being as low as it is, and his previous experience he could give you a huge return. He just needs to stay healthy. A gamble? Maybe, but one I'd be willing to take.
(Anyone outside the top 125 from 2008 costs $850,000 in my pool)

Tiger Woods $Pro-Rated at $8,500,000 in my pool - Ignore anything I may have said at the beginning of this post. He's Tiger Woods. You don't need any other reason to expect him to produce in 2009

Don't be fooled:

Kenny Perry $4,663,794 - I don't want to take anything away from Kenny's 2008 season as it was amazing. He accomplished what he set out to do, and made the Ryder Cup team. He has 13 career wins on the PGA tour and has recently said he'd like to get to 20 in his career. It may be possible, I don't believe it is. If you really think he's going to top what he made last year, by all means take him. I for one don't think you'll get much return with this pick.

Charles Howell III $1,449,232 - He gave me absolutely no reason to think he's going to get any better in 2009. In 31 starts last season he posted only one top five and four top ten's. He earned a third of his money after the playoff's and was cut in 3 of the 4 majors, finishing T47 in the PGA. If you think you're getting value here, you're likely wrong.

Vaughn Taylor $1,053,423 - Taylor proved last season he simply can't play on the weekends. I can't remember how many times he opened strong only to fade away on Saturday or Sunday. Unless he can mentally figure out how to get around the course on the weekend, I can't see much out of him this season.

Vijay Singh $6,601,094 - Singh is crazy good. He'll win this season, and make a boat load of money no doubt. However, with his pending knee surgery and high cost, it's likely not the greatest pick. It's unlikely he'll earn more than he did last season, which means even if he does get to let's say $5,000,000 you're still losing.

Jason Day $850,000 - Don't believe the hype.

Remember, the Race for Dubai is really going to affect the number of PGA tour events some Europeans play this season, and possibly even some PGA tour regulars who may choose to split time. Generally trying to pick players who play a heavy PGA tour schedule is the best option, but catching lightning in a bottle doesn't hurt either.

Sure there are other potential winners and misses but as with any pool, you're just going to have to figure that out. Boo Weekley although not in my top five, didn't miss by much.

Best of luck in your Pools this season.

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